So much has changed since my last post just over a month ago, when I was pulling my hair out because the markets kept hitting all time highs in spite of a massive threat (which incidentally I had the exact same feeling in 2007 when I was noticing the hundreds of thousands of foreclosure notices hitting the county clerks' offices while markets continued to hold up). At any rate I'm not going to talk much about everything that has gone on, which pretty much everyone on the planet is aware now, but I will have to say the scope and economic damage is way beyond even what I was thinking (and I can be pretty pessimistic at times). But alas the FED is doing what I thought they would (printing and buying anything that moves) plus a 1000 percent! So when the dust starts to settle and hopefully the virus begins to fade, the only game in town is to go long stocks and hard assets. Holding too much cash in a portfolio will be too risky a proposition in the face of possible inflation. Inflation is the only way out at this point. The only question is when. This has been one of the quickest and most precipitous drops in history and it is possible that the recovery could be just as swift. I believe the only thing that matters at present is watching for any sign of slowdown of the spread of the virus and whether or not we can see a return to a semblance of normalcy. That point should be a great buying opportunity (barring any second and third waves of the pandemic where we will need to have further shutdowns and quarantines and therefore further financial disruptions). Keeping everyone safe should be the number one priority. The economy will come back.
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