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Shorting Penny Stocks...

8/27/2011

 
There is a recent promotion which tells of an "amazing opportunity" in the oil and gas business.  The promotion tells you to "buy this stock now in the $2 to $3 range and make $36,000 off only 2000 shares.  A ten bagger for sure!!!"  The email and mailer brochure tells how this unknown oil and gas player is sticking it to the big players because they were able to pick up huge reserves for nothing.  It mentions the hot buzzword "bakken" about a hundred times (because that is the hottest phrase in oil and gas at present).  Then when you get to the disclaimer of this glowing report it tells you that a third party is paying $125,000 for the promotion.  The stock being promoted is LOGL - Legend oil and gas.  The stock has started perking up again on heavy volume since this new promote started about 2 weeks ago.  As it loses steam, the stock will more than likely dump (I have never seen a paid promote succeed long term).  I am starting a short position in LOGL.  I expect this promote will end exactly the same as the 1000's of others over the years...
BTW - if you want a real junior explorer that is teaming up with Brigham Exploration in the Bakken, look at my favorite ESTE Earthstone Energy.  Their last well, which they have a 4% stake, just hit for 3,900 barrels a day initial production.
Disclosure: Long ESTE - Short LOGL

ESTE - Earthstone puts out nice numbers...

8/13/2011

 
Earthstone Energy does 39 cents a share for the quarter.  At $13/share the forward P/E ratio is now about 8 with growth in production on the way.  Ray Singleton - the CEO - said new capital expenditures should double this year, meaning a lot more well interests and a lot more production.  Of Earthstone's partners, Brigham Exploration is really starting to drill in the Banks area.   There are four additional wells that are coming online.  ESTE has a 5.5% to 2% interest in these new wells.
****Dislosure: Long ESTE - we may buy more or sell at anytime.

BOFI hits another great quarter - Stock soars...

8/11/2011

 
BOFI - parent company of Bankofinternet.com did indeed come through at 50 cents as the CEO hinted during an investor conference last week.  Growth in their mortgage origination business and deposits lead the highlights of the quarter.  I picked up a few shares during the market blood bath in the past few days and sold a few into todays earnings spike. The stock was up nearly 20% at one point.  This company is an exciting franchise and still - by far - my number one pick.   
****Disclosure: Long stock - (may buy or sell at anytime)

VXX... starting to short the VIX (with decay as a bonus)

8/8/2011

 

BOFI - buying into the value...

8/8/2011

 
BOFI Holding operates Bankofinternet.com - an internet only bank, ala ingdirect.  BOFI is growing leaps and bounds and trades at an amazing P/E of 6.  I have never seen a company with this type of earnings/revenue growth trade at such a paltry valuation.  Did I mention it is now trading at $1 below book value?  Earnings will be released on Wednesday and the CEO mentioned at a banking conference that about 50 cents was added to book value.  He basically let the world know they will be doing a nice 50 cent for the quarter.  Not bad for a stock now trading at $12.35 -


We are currently long BOFI...

SPLM - the chart that keeps giving...

8/7/2011

 
I started shorting SPLM after the volume spikes in March.  The price ran near $3.70 and the stock (due to an apparent old fashioned snail mail promotion) began to look ready to roll over.  Shares were sometimes available (you actually had to short pre-market to get any).  Since then the stock has rebounded several times and I was able to get shares on some of those occasions.  The stock pulled back and then bounced four different times.  The possible return on each drop was +40% +30% +50% +50%. On a side note, although I never went long this stock, tremendous profits could have been made by covering shorts and going long for the rebound each time.  The trading strategy is called "playing the bounce" and with a good eye for level II you can be a success at it (I seem to have more patience on the short side).

Short List -

8/6/2011

 
While I like shorting the overinflated promotion stocks - usually otcbb and pink - this week you could have pretty much shot the fish in the barrel.  I was short LOGL - Legend oil and gas -  and covered for a small gain.  I will be looking for shares of VXX if it stays in the 30 plus range.  VXX decays badly and the Vix does not stay high forever.  It could be an interesting week since the US has been downgraded.

New blog postings...

8/6/2011

 
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    Paul Saad

    Senior Manager, Paul Saad and Associates, LLC

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