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INBK PUTS OUT GOOD NUMBERS

10/23/2015

 
First Internet Bank posted 51 cents for the Q just ended. They beat the analyst's view by 5 cents and crushed last year. But they only increased the prior Q by one cent, and therefore the stock will most likely just get a lukewarm response. I have not dug into the numbers yet so I don't have much to comment on. They did raise some $10 Million through a debt placement so this should allow them to grow the book of loans (and accounts) which could help #'s going forward. In the meantime there is a bit of a scandal going on over at our original stock pick in this space - BOFI. Apparently, one of the former employees (that happened to be an inside auditor) was fired. He subsequently filed a lawsuit that basically said he was terminated because the company wanted to silence his concerns and that BOFI was not forthcoming with its regulators. So as a result the parade of class action attorneys have been piling on and the stock has taken a beating. The company denies all this and the regulators seem to agree so far - or at least are quiet about it.  I currently have no position in either stock mentioned (but may purchase shares at any time).


On another note, this past week has been my worst in years; my market shorts are getting crushed as the Central Bankers (Planners) over at the EU have been letting everyone know that they will keep printing until all currency is worthless. China does not want to be left out of the party either so they announced another rate cut overnight. The currency wars (or a race to the bottom) are ongoing.

At this point the market is very near recovering the old highs. Most of the big boys like MCD - MSFT - GOOGL - AMZN are all exploding to new all time highs. It almost seems as if they have to make up for the 30% of the remaining stocks which are stuck in bear market territory (it is tough work but someone has to do it...)

During the pullback in 2011, the market action was somewhat the same: A massive rally off the bottom to a high around October 26 - then fading quite a bit until about the third week in November, then the obligatory Santa Rally that took it to new highs. I am looking for the same type of action now. I should add that I am less confident in this view than I was a day or so ago, but for the time being, I am sticking with it.
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2011 Market Correction. Massive rally into the end of October (like the current rally) and then a downtrend through November 25.
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2015: There is less sideways action and bottoming than in 2011, before the massive rally higher, but the two charts are similar.

Options expiration and the week after

10/19/2015

 
This last Friday, Oct 16 was the usual option expiration day. I was looking for articles about market performance going into and after options expiration to see if there are any trends. Sure enough, I found a couple different sources which shows pretty strong evidence of outperformance heading into expiration and underperformance after.

It seems that the Monday following expiration is usually the worst day for going long, followed by Wednesday. Turnaround Tuesday, Thursday and Friday of that week are not as bad. So putting some ultra-short ETF's to work just before the close of option expiration Friday could probably be a good one-day trade. Well I shall see how it works out as I came into today (the Monday following Option-Ex) with some heavy short exposure. Long SDS and DXD (short term trades).


***Update: The S&P was red most of the day until the last minute when it poked higher by a half a point. This market has been trading like it won't close red for the past couple of weeks. I am keeping my short bias on as the S&P is only off 4.5% from its all time high at this point, and is currently at 2033. With all the technical damage done lately and the deteriorating fundamentals, I can't see how the August meltdown was just a one and done.

I did go slightly long Crude and Nat Gas by shorting the 3X's leveraged ETF's - DWTI and DGAZ.



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    Paul Saad

    Senior Manager, Paul Saad and Associates, LLC

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