While I sometimes attempt to trade a possible winter bounce in Natural Gas, I have noted in previous years that the actual best time to go long Natty is during the month of February. Probably this is about the point in time when traders stop worrying about how cold or warm winter is going to be (or if we are even going to have winter in the east coast like this year) and move on to other things. The last time Nat Gas got this ugly from a long bias trading perspective was 2016 and the bottom didn't hit until late February of that year. The bottoms have been moving earlier during the month since that time. Here is the chart below. Currently long with small position but look to add during February. From a fundamental perspective it seems production has finally been dropping the past month or so from record levels and LNG exports are cranking up. Aside from that it's pretty ugly. But a one month bounce or so is all I'm looking for anyway.
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