Disclosure: starting to short S&P
When the market was falling apart in Jan/Feb of this year we sided with some technical analysts and decided that those all-time highs would need to be re-tested before a down leg could begin in earnest. Well the S&P and Nasdaq did their part and extended beyond and now the Dow has retested and is at all-time highs again. So we are approaching the levels of the crudely drawn upper trend line on the S&P (probably between 2930 and 2960) and this could be a good point to start putting on some shorts. Seasonality is at play here going into the spooky month of October and we are heading into earnings buy-back-black-out period (the first week of October about 85% of companies will be prevented from buying their stock) so it may be safe for some bears to start romping for a trade. However we are not getting the "recession is imminent" signal yet so the longer term bear trade is still up in the air. I guess we will play it by ear (and watch the leading economic indicators).
Disclosure: starting to short S&P Comments are closed.
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Paul SaadSenior Manager, Paul Saad and Associates, LLC Archives
May 2020
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